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LEAP/Europe 2020 (Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique, English: European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) is a think tank established to analyze and anticipate global economic developments from a European perspective and to publish a paid-subscription monthly economic forecast bulletin. It was founded in 1997 among others by Franck Biancheri, the founder of the European student network AEGEE (Association des États Generaux de l'Europe) and one of the few pan-European parties, Newropeans. LEAP/E2020 claims to be the first European website of anticipation, independent from any government or lobby. Recently, LEAP/E2020 examined the possibility of a great depression similar to the breakdown of the stock markets in 1929, which is labeled "Global Systemic Crisis".〔http://www.europe2020.org/spip.php?article228&lang=en〕 Subscriptions for its monthly ''Global European Anticipation Bulletin'' (GEAB) cost 200 euros per year. This bulletin contains several anticipations, always signed by the LEAP research team, often six to twelve months ahead. They are publishing each month a public summary of their anticipations so it is very easy to observe their high success in anticipating major events in the Global Systemic Crisis. They are following a fully transparent and rigorous method they have created and described in the Manual of Political Anticipation.〔Political anticipation: observing and understanding global socio-economic trends with a view to guide the decision-making processes,Marie-Hélène Caillol, International Journal of General Systems,Vol. 41, Iss. 1, 2011〕 They are not always right about the dates : some anticipations were included a Euro/USD exchange rate of 1.75 by the end of the year 2008 and the inevitable default of the United States government on its treasury obligations by the summer of 2009. But they have announced the September 2008 financial breakdown〔http://www.europe2020.org/spip.php?article527&lang=en〕 and 2011 revolutions in Maghreb with high precision, among others. == History == LEAP/Europe2020 was born from the sudden awareness, at the turn of the 1990s, that the European project was heading towards a dead end by lack of mid-term visibility. Either depending too much on the ruling class or mere «national think-tanks», research centres were unable to comprehend the European dimension. LEAP/Europe2020’s approach therefore consisted of building the structural and methodological means needed to propose a substantial political project to the European Union. The group really started gaining momentum when the Santer Commission resigned in 1999. Since 1995, they had anticipated that the European institutions would encounter problems because its machinery lacked democratic mechanisms. When the Santer crisis confirmed their analysis, the work conducted by LEAP/Europe2020’s researchers was acknowledged. National and European public organizations became interested in taking part in the conferences organized by the group and eager to receive their reports. In September 2008, when the financial and economic crisis broke, confirming LEAP/Europe2020 forecasts since February 2006, the research centre again proved the accurateness of its analyses and methods of anticipation. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Leap2020」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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